February 12, 2025
The MVP race via 13 weeks and Brock Purdy's rising case: Sando's Decide Six
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Soccer followers love a great MVP dialogue. We’re going to have one right here after Brock Purdy’s San Francisco 49ers ran the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles off their very own area on Sunday.

Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa entered Week 13 as betting favorites to win the award. Purdy was subsequent, adopted by a giant drop to Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud within the subsequent tier.

It’s time to reassess not solely the MVP race, however the place Purdy matches into it after main San Francisco to landing drives on six consecutive possessions in opposition to the Eagles — solely the fifth time an offense has completed that since not less than 2000, per TruMedia.

This version of the Decide Six column strips away all the things anybody has thought of Purdy and his position within the 49ers’ success, focusing as an alternative on pure manufacturing. I’ve pulled the related numbers for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks and can present precisely how the 2023 contenders stack up, with particular consideration on Purdy.

MVP race: The case for Brock Purdy
Playoff race: Packers & largest swings
Trying towards the 2024 coach hiring cycle
Let’s not overthink offensive declines
Placing a roof over Geno Smith’s head
Two-minute drill: LSU’s Daniels over North Carolina’s Maye

1. Not way back, we have been discussing whether or not Brock Purdy was a reputable beginning quarterback. Now, we’re asking whether or not he’s a reputable MVP candidate. The manufacturing says sure. So does the context.

Purdy completed the 49ers’ 42-19 victory in opposition to the Eagles with 314 yards and 4 landing passes. His receivers accounted for 212 yards after the catch, which performs into the considering Purdy advantages from his receivers disproportionately. He doesn’t on the entire.

YAC accounts for 48.5 p.c of Purdy’s passing yards this season. The typical is 47 p.c for beginning quarterbacks. The typical was 48 p.c for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks. Mahomes was at 54 p.c throughout his 2022 MVP season.

This sacks the YAC argument in opposition to Purdy.

Researching the place the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks ranked in key classes inside their award-winning seasons creates a profile we will apply to Purdy and the opposite betting favorites.

The desk beneath reveals the place these MVPs ranked in mixed EPA on cross performs/QB rushes, EPA per cross play and whole touchdowns. Specializing in these metrics solves for quantity and effectivity, whereas making an allowance for passing and speeding, with some acknowledgment of conventional stats (touchdowns are good).

Almost all of the MVPs ranked close to the highest in all three classes. Cam Newton was an exception as a result of he began his MVP season slowly.

The place Final 10 MVPs Ranked

MVP Ranks TOT EPA EPA/PP TOT TD

Patrick Mahomes (’22)

1

1

1

Aaron Rodgers (’21)

2

1

5

Aaron Rodgers (’20)

1

1

1

Lamar Jackson (’19)

1

1

1

Patrick Mahomes (’18)

1

1

1

Tom Brady (’17)

1

1

3

Matt Ryan (’16)

1

1

3

Cam Newton (’15)

6

9

1

Aaron Rodgers (’14)

1

1

2

Peyton Manning (’13)

1

1

1

Common

1.6

1.8

1.9

Viewing 2023 MVP favorites coming into Week 13 via the identical lens reveals Purdy on the prime, with Prescott shut behind. Josh Allen is third though his Buffalo Payments have a 6-6 file. Purdy and Prescott haven’t any actual blemishes. They’re essentially the most reputable candidates. Purdy outproduced Prescott strikingly when the 49ers blew out the Cowboys earlier within the season, however our production-focused strategy doesn’t take that into consideration.

The place Present MVP Favorites Rank

Trying past manufacturing for larger context is a part of the method. It can also distract.

Purdy advantages from a differentiating play caller and a number of sturdy receivers. So did Joe Montana (1989, 1990), Steve Younger (1992), Brett Favre (1995-97), Kurt Warner (1999, 2001), Tom Brady (2007), Matt Ryan (2016) and so many others. That’s how MVP seasons come collectively.

Nobody holds it in opposition to Montana or Favre that Mike Holmgren referred to as offensive performs for all 5 of their MVP seasons. Ought to Kyle Shanahan’s play calling disqualify Purdy?

There’s one ultimate visible to contemplate. Urgent “replay” on the chart beneath reveals game-by-game EPA on cross performs and quarterback rushes for the 2023 MVP favorites. Toggling between “scores” and “ranks” gives completely different views on the identical information.

One of many traces represents common game-by-game EPA manufacturing for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks. Discover how carefully Purdy’s manufacturing tracks with theirs.

Utilizing averages for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks creates a line with out the peaks and valleys these quarterbacks skilled individually. This line represents the gold commonplace for evaluating MVP quarterback manufacturing.

Prescott has surged just lately. Tagovailoa bounced again in opposition to Washington on Sunday following a down stretch. Others vacillate week to week.

Purdy’s manufacturing tracks so carefully with the ten MVPs as to grow to be virtually indistinguishable in spots. Nobody is aware of what the longer term may maintain. If the 49ers discover themselves enjoying from behind and the offense melts down in these pure passing conditions, we will revisit this dialog then. For now, it’s clear we’ve got reached the purpose the place arguing for Purdy’s MVP case is less complicated than arguing in opposition to it.

2. The Inexperienced Bay Packers’ huge victory in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs improved their playoff possibilities considerably. Right here’s how these possibilities modified for each workforce in Week 13.

Dramatic finishes in Week 13 altered the playoff panorama.

Jimmie Ward’s interception for Houston off Denver’s Russell Wilson within the ultimate minute secured a victory that upped the Texans’ playoff possibilities from 50-50 to 70-30, whereas reducing the Broncos’ possibilities in half to roughly 10 p.c. That recreation produced the biggest mixed swing for a single recreation in Week 13.

Utilizing the mannequin Austin Mock maintains for The Athletic, I’ve produced a desk exhibiting each workforce’s playoff possibilities, and the way these possibilities modified in Week 13.

Playoff Probability Swings in Week 13

The Packers’ possibilities have improved from 15 p.c to 25 p.c to 53 p.c to 67 p.c throughout their three-game profitable streak in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. The Packers have been underdogs in each recreation. They could possibly be favored to win over the course of their remaining schedule, which options the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.

Inexperienced Bay quarterback Jordan Love now ranks twelfth in EPA per cross play. The Packers’ offense ranks tenth in EPA per play. Coach Matt LaFleur improved to 16-0 in December and may make it 20-0 if his Packers can beat the Giants, Bucs, Panthers and Vikings. It’s a brand new day in Inexperienced Bay.

3. The 2024 head coach hiring cycle is quick approaching, and with it the seek for the following Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay.

The favourite to win NFL Coach of the Yr was by no means a main play caller earlier than main the Detroit Lions again from the lifeless into prime playoff positioning. Will Dan Campbell’s success have an effect on the 2024 hiring cycle? Will Campbell be a one-off? Are there sufficient offensive play callers to go round?

Carolina Panthers proprietor David Tepper reportedly plans to focus on an offensive-minded coach to exchange the offensive-minded coach he simply fired.

Groups over the previous 5 hiring cycles have chosen 23 coaches with backgrounds on offense, 11 with backgrounds on protection and one special-teams coach (Joe Decide).

Deciding prematurely you’re solely considering candidates with a selected background reduces the chance a franchise will discover the most effective candidate. That’s notable for Tepper, who has spoken regularly about enjoying the possibilities.

“The very mannequin that the homeowners need might be the toughest one to realize success with,” an exec from a workforce with a longtime coach mentioned. “It’s onerous to seek out the coach who can do all of it nicely. Now, it offers you the most effective upside. Kyle Shanahan offers you the most effective upside, but it surely’s the toughest one to make work as a result of it’s so onerous to do.”

Homeowners worry shedding a profitable offensive play caller to move teaching jobs elsewhere, in order that they rent offensive-minded head coaches.

However essentially the most profitable team-quarterback marriages over the previous 20 years featured coaches with backgrounds on protection and/or particular groups: Invoice Belichick with Tom Brady in New England, Pete Carroll with Russell Wilson in Seattle, John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco in Baltimore, Mike Tomlin with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.

These groups loved far larger championship success than the groups that paired offensive-minded coaches with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Philip Rivers. Why? These coaches additionally weren’t play callers. They coached the total workforce and set the tradition.

Scoring is down. So many offenses are struggling. Prime offensive assistants have already been employed away from Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams, Shanahan’s 49ers and Nick Sirianni’s Eagles.

The seek for the following elite offensive play-calling head coach will proceed.

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stands out. Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy needs to be within the combine. Maybe the Cincinnati Bengals’ Brian Callahan will get an opportunity. Houston’s Bobby Slowik might draw curiosity after a robust preliminary season as a coordinator. Miami’s Frank Smith is ending his second season with the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel.

A few of the most profitable veteran defensive coordinators generate virtually no buzz.

Steve Spagnuolo has gained three Tremendous Bowls as a defensive coordinator and has the Chiefs’ protection enjoying its finest soccer in years.

Jim Schwartz, one other former head coach with a Tremendous Bowl pedigree as defensive coordinator, has had the Cleveland Browns’ protection within the prime 5 statistically.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ protection underneath coordinator Teryl Austin just lately allowed not more than 20 factors in seven successive video games, the workforce’s longest streak inside a season since 2004.

Dan Quinn, Brian Flores, Raheem Morris, Ejiro Evero and Lou Anarumo are among the many defensive coordinators who might get interviews.

4. The previous month has produced the 4 least-experienced weeks of beginning quarterback play since not less than 2000, which is fascinating as a result of …

With offensive manufacturing down over the previous couple seasons, conversations across the topic have proliferated. Former GM Invoice Polian recommended throughout our radio dialog Wednesday that officers are letting defensive backs play extra aggressively, affecting manufacturing. ESPN analysts have recommended delayed pressures on protection are having an impression.

A number of explanations could possibly be true, however nothing impacts offense greater than quarterbacks do. With so many younger quarterbacks beginning, groups have shifted even more durable towards shotgun formations whereas simplifying their offenses. Each elements have made it more durable for groups to current a reputable menace within the working recreation, and thus passing turns into harder.

Groups that current a reputable run menace via scheme, personnel or each have remained explosive within the passing recreation. Miami, San Francisco and Houston do that nicely. They rank 1-2-3, respectively in explosive cross features this season. Sure, personnel issues, however these groups are scheming explosive features partly as a result of opponents should decide to defending their run schemes.

That’s my considering, anyway.

The chart above reveals the typical years of expertise for beginning quarterbacks plummeting. It additionally reveals EPA per cross play declining on the identical time. This doesn’t show causation, however this correlation appears logical.

Beginning quarterbacks in Weeks 9 averaged 4.36 years of expertise, lowest in 406 regular-season weeks since 2000, per TruMedia. The 4 youngest weeks in that 24-season information set fell from Week 9-12 this season. This season has produced 9 of the 35 least-experienced weeks since 2000.

5. Geno Smith’s up-and-down season because the Seahawks’ beginning quarterback has generally been confounding. A typical thread could possibly be one thing.

The primary electronic mail arrived the day after Christmas 2022. A Seahawks fan was suggesting Seattle quarterback Geno Smith performed significantly better indoors than open air, for no matter purpose (having comparatively small palms was one principle).

A number of weeks handed. The identical fan despatched a second electronic mail, this one that includes a line graph noting Smith’s play tailing off because the 2022 season progressed, and noting Seattle’s late-season schedule featured all outside video games.

A 3rd electronic mail arrived final month after Seattle’s blowout defeat at Baltimore.

“Outside Geno appears to be like like the identical QB from the Jets,” it learn. “However indoors he appears to be like like the most effective QB within the league.”

Since that recreation, Smith appeared fairly good open air in opposition to Washington, largely good underneath the roof at SoFi Stadium in opposition to the Rams, very unhealthy open air in opposition to San Francisco and excellent indoors at Dallas.

Add all of it up and I’m unsure what we’ve received, however these are splits value monitoring not less than. Seattle finishes its season with 4 consecutive open air video games earlier than a visit to Arizona.

2022-23 Geno Smith: Placing a Roof Over His Head

Venue Indoors Outside

Begins

9

21

Cmp%

70.1%

66.7%

Yds/Recreation

290

231

Yds/Att

8.6

6.9

TD-INT

20-4

27-17

Score

112.7

89

EPA/Go Play

0.22

-0.05

Sack Fee

5.3%

7.7%

Tm OFF EPA/G

+8.2

-3.9

Tm DST EPA/G

-6.2

-0.1

W-L

5-4

10-11

The indoor video games depend two at Detroit, three at Los Angeles (two in opposition to the Rams, one in opposition to the Chargers), one at New Orleans, one in opposition to Tampa Bay in Germany and one other at Dallas. A few of these defenses have been sturdy. Others weren’t. However virtually throughout the board, Smith was extremely productive.

General, Smith has began 33 of Pete Carroll’s 241 whole video games as Seattle’s head coach. In these 33 begins, Smith has led the most effective and fourth-best offensive EPA video games of the Carroll period: indoors at Detroit final season (48-45 victory with plus-27.6 EPA) and indoors at Dallas on Thursday evening (41-35 defeat with plus 20.9 EPA).

6. Two-minute drill: Right here’s a vote for Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye because the second quarterback within the 2024 draft.

New England shedding and Arizona upsetting Pittsburgh on the street saved the Patriots in prime place to snag one of many prime two picks within the 2024 draft. Carolina sits atop the order at 1-11, with the Chicago Bears having acquired the choice in March. The Patriots (2-10) sit second, adopted by the Cardinals (3-10) and Washington (4-9).

Most NFL draft analysts in media appear to have USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye as the highest two quarterbacks within the 2024 class. My Soccer GM co-host, Randy Mueller, defined heading into Week 13 why he sees Williams first and LSU’s Jayden Daniels second. Instincts for the place are one of many key variables in Mueller’s analysis. The main points from that dialog can be found within the audio beneath.

Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is on tempo for two,098 receiving yards this season after catching 5 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns in a 45-15 victory in opposition to Washington. Hill over his previous three video games has 24 catches for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns. That roughly matches the full-season manufacturing for Odell Beckham Jr. (27-408-2).

Hill can break Calvin Johnson’s NFL single-season file (1,964) with one other 484 yards. He would want to common 96.8 yards per recreation to interrupt the file. He would want 121 yards per recreation over the following 4 video games to beat Johnson’s file in the identical variety of video games out there to Johnson, who set the file in 2012, when groups performed 16 video games as an alternative of 17.

Hill is averaging 123.4 yards per recreation.

The New England Patriots have now misplaced 10-6, 10-7 and 6-0 over the previous three weeks. Per Professional Soccer Reference, that is the primary time because the Nineteen Thirties that an NFL workforce misplaced three successive video games inside a season with out permitting greater than 10 factors in any of them. The streak has stable potential to proceed as a result of Pittsburgh is subsequent on the Patriots’ schedule.

The 1938 Chicago Cardinals misplaced 4 video games in a row with out permitting greater than 10 factors in any.

The 1937 Steelers, then led by legendary player-coach Johnny “Blood” McNally and nonetheless often known as the Pirates, have been the final workforce to lose three in a row this manner with out make it 4 straight the following week.

McNally was rather more thrilling than both the 2023 Patriots or 1937 Pirates on offense. He was recognized for crawling throughout the tops of shifting trains, getting stranded on the SS Mariposa’s stern whereas doing pullups throughout a voyage to Hawaii and scaling motels to, amongst different issues, beat curfew and sing to girls beneath.

As for New England, the Patriots are minus-38.2 in offensive EPA and plus-37.3 on the defensive facet throughout this slide. Particular groups has been a pivotal variable. New England is minus-12.1 EPA in that part throughout its three-game skid. The Patriots have completed their previous 4 video games with damaging EPA on particular groups. That ties for the longest Patriots streak of the Invoice Belichick period. …

Mike Evans enhanced his Corridor of Fame credentials by reaching 1,000 yards for the tenth consecutive season to begin his profession, 4 greater than any participant in NFL historical past (Randy Moss). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ receiver stands atop the yardage checklist amongst gamers drafted in 2014, even with Davante Adams’ presence.

2014 Draft: Receiving Yardage Leaders

•The Denver Broncos’ five-game profitable streak led to Houston with the offense failing to transform any of its 11 possibilities on third down whereas ending with 282 yards and three turnovers. Russell Wilson’s third and ultimate interception, delivered in the long run zone through the ultimate minute, allowed Houston to emerge with a 22-17 victory. That one was not the killer. Wilson’s second interception was the one that actually harm. Denver had Jerry Jeudy open on an out-and-up, however Wilson as an alternative threw to Courtland Sutton within the submit.

“If the deep participant jumps the submit, you gotta go to the sideline,” a veteran coach who noticed the play mentioned. “They hit him (Sutton) on that earlier within the recreation for about 45 yards, and it was one hundred pc the learn on the interception.”

This was Sean Payton’s 270th profession recreation as a head coach and the second through which his workforce did not convert on third down. It occurred with New Orleans in 2021 Week 16, throughout a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins with Ian Ebook behind middle for the Saints. …

Whereas it’s truthful to level out how poorly the Washington Commanders’ protection carried out in its first recreation with coach Ron Rivera taking on as coordinator, we’d like a couple of recreation to make an analysis. The Chicago Bears’ protection was not instantly higher when coach Matt Eberflus took over coordinating duties, but it surely did enhance over time.

The Buffalo Payments went into their Week 13 bye using a two-game streak with two turnovers in 26 drives underneath new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. That’s a giant enchancment from latest video games, however not an extended sufficient run to make it a pattern.

The Payments responded to their turnover-ridden Week 1 defeat in opposition to the New York Jets with a three-game run that includes 14 touchdowns, six made area targets and one turnover throughout 31 drives. Was {that a} case of then-coordinator Ken Dorsey doing an particularly good job? It might have been, however what occurs over just a few video games regularly can replicate pure ebbs and flows inside a season.

How significantly better are the Pittsburgh Steelers after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada? Significantly better final week, not so good Sunday.

Rivera and Washington get a bye in Week 14. How the protection performs in closing video games in opposition to the Rams, Jets, 49ers and Cowboys will higher replicate upon Rivera. …

Again to Purdy, the 49ers and people six consecutive landing drives. Per TruMedia. San Francisco joined an exalted group of workforce/quarterback combos to perform the feat. Additionally on the checklist: the 2019 Ravens with MVP Lamar Jackson; the 2007 and 2009 Patriots with Brady; and the 2001 Colts with Peyton Manning.

(Prime picture: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Photographs)


“The Soccer 100,” the definitive rating of the NFL’s finest 100 gamers of all time, is on sale now. Order it right here.