
You quickly should determine how one can proceed as that quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, enters the ultimate 12 months of his contract. Do you validate the love your coach, Mike McDaniel, has proven Tagovailoa whereas reviving the quarterback’s confidence and profession? Do you let your quarterback play out his deal, turning every recreation right into a referendum on his future? What about making a run at Kirk Cousins or one other different?
“A Miami workforce isn’t going to play effectively within the chilly,” an exec from one other NFL workforce mentioned. “I don’t know whether or not Tua is the reply no matter that. However what do you do?”
The Choose Six column joins the dialogue there, that includes insights from NFL workforce executives into what the very best path ahead is perhaps.
We’ll additionally dive into the New England Patriots’ plan for a post-Invoice Belichick world, invoking a historic parallel suggesting the Patriots might grow to be extra just like the Dallas Cowboys than most would think about. Talking of the Cowboys, they misplaced within the playoffs — shocker — and there might be ramifications. The complete menu:
• Dolphins’ choices at quarterback
• Patriots about to be new Cowboys?
• Who actually received Rams–Lions commerce
• What we discovered about Chiefs
• Belichick, Carroll and Tomlin?
• Two-minute drill: Stroud arrives
1. The Dolphins have selections to make concerning their future at quarterback. They’ve choices.
The issue for Miami is that the AFC is filled with cold-weather groups possessing superior quarterbacks. Kansas Metropolis with Patrick Mahomes. Cincinnati with Joe Burrow. Buffalo with Josh Allen. Baltimore with Lamar Jackson.
The Jets with Aaron Rodgers and Cleveland with Deshaun Watson have the potential to be within the combine, whereas one of many AFC’s indoor groups, Houston, has an rising star QB in rookie C.J. Stroud. New England picks third within the draft and will plausibly add a quarterback extra gifted than Tagovailoa. Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence additionally stay within the AFC.
In different phrases, good luck within the playoffs with Tua, particularly on the highway.
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Let’s contemplate three choices, ordered from most to least palatable:
• Commerce Tua, signal Cousins: The equation right here is that Cousins and a draft decide (or picks) could be higher than persevering with with Tagovailoa. The Dolphins wouldn’t have third- or fourth-round picks within the upcoming draft, so they may use the capital. Cousins, a free agent in March, must prioritize Miami as his most well-liked touchdown spot, which seemingly could be straightforward for him, given what the Dolphins provide when it comes to McDaniel’s character, the scheme and weaponry.
“Your upside with Tua definitely appears restricted,” an exec mentioned, “so let’s say you possibly can commerce him. I’d be exploring, ‘OK, Tua, we are able to win video games with, most likely not profitable a championship with. Kirk Cousins, we are able to win video games with, most likely not profitable a championship with. However our sources are higher spent on Cousins plus draft picks than they’re on simply Tua.”
Who would commerce for Tagovailoa? NFC groups with indoor stadiums may. May the Dolphins get a first-round decide? A second- and a third-rounder?
“In case you might get a 2 and a 3 for Tua and signal Kirk, I’d need to be sure I felt comfy about having him for 3 years from a well being standpoint,” a special exec mentioned. “I do assume Tua works significantly better in a domed stadium the place you realize half your video games are performed in pristine circumstances.”
Put Tagovailoa on the Falcons and Atlanta might have the very best quarterback within the division. The Vikings would want a quarterback if Cousins departed. May the Rams have an interest if Matthew Stafford retired? Buying and selling Tagovailoa for Stafford could be even higher if the best set of circumstances made it possible.
McDaniel’s teaching mentor, Kyle Shanahan, has coveted Cousins. McDaniel may really feel equally. The three had been along with Washington for Cousins’ first two seasons. May Cousins be the distinction for the Dolphins between securing home-field benefit or not?
“In case you like Cousins and you’ll signal him to a three- or four-year deal and you’ll commerce Tua for a few draft picks, that to me is a special sort of path ahead,” the primary exec mentioned. “I don’t know if it’s the greatest one. You actually need to be in that constructing to know, however in case you are searching for options, there’s a fairly good one.”

McDaniel, proper, has helped Tagovailoa thrive, however is it sufficient? (Jonathan Newton / The Washington Put up through Getty Pictures)
• Let Tua play out the fifth-year possibility: This seems like essentially the most logical possibility within the summary. Groups with doubts about their quarterbacks mustn’t signal them to long-term offers after they can go year-to-year. Tagovailoa is scheduled to earn $23.2 million in 2024, which is on the backside of the annual averages for veteran starters, beneath Jimmy Garoppolo.
“Then you might be strolling into taking part in the franchise-tag recreation, which can be OK within the occasion of Tua,” an exec mentioned. “On this case, you aren’t anxious about somebody placing up two ones and taking Tua away. It’s extra concerning the message it sends to your locker room, your group, your group about what it’s that you simply reward. If Tua is beloved there, they could as effectively do a deal and attempt to decrease their threat and preserve trying to find the subsequent quarterback.”
The previous two seasons have proven that Tagovailoa is an effective quarterback whose limitations present up resoundingly below the hardest circumstances.
“He’s on the stage of quarterback that’s exhausting to decide to,” one other exec mentioned. “However it turns into actually difficult if you begin betting towards your quarterback like that.”
That is the place McDaniel’s authenticity, a trademark of his strategy, could be examined.

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“No matter your reasoning is, you simply need to share that with Tua and inform him that is how we see it,” the exec mentioned.
One other exec was extra blunt.
“You gotta love who you might be with after which transfer on,” this exec mentioned. “He’s your No. 1 quarterback till he’s not.”
• Lengthen Tagovailoa’s contract: The Dolphins might ask for structural concessions mitigating the chance with a participant who carries damage and efficiency sustainability considerations. Tagovailoa made it via a full season lastly, however his late-season manufacturing has suffered. He has a 2-4 beginning report towards playoff groups below McDaniel.
Would Tagovailoa reward the religion McDaniel has proven in him, recognizing he’s greatest off in Miami, by taking a deal that provides him monetary safety whereas sustaining extra workforce flexibility?
“Not going to be potential,” one other exec predicted. “It takes a very mature participant who controls the agent to try this, and that’s uncommon.”
Underneath this situation, the Dolphins would get wholesome on protection, then make one other run on the prime seed within the AFC. Tagovailoa could be the beginning quarterback for the subsequent two seasons, perhaps three.
“There is no such thing as a manner I’d give him an extension,” this exec added. “You do need to be involved that your division goes to be a dogfight with Buffalo yearly, and you might have to win a few of these video games in unhealthy circumstances late within the season, and you might be taking part in wild-card video games on the highway as effectively.”
2. Are the Patriots about to grow to be the Cowboys, and vice versa?
Rumors suggesting Belichick might grow to be the Cowboys’ subsequent coach may overshadow one other chance. What if the Patriots are about to start out working extra just like the Cowboys?
To grasp, contemplate the trail Cowboys proprietor Jerry Jones selected almost three many years in the past. His workforce had received large with Jimmy Johnson because the coach and picker of gamers. Johnson received the credit score. Jones couldn’t stand it, suggesting to reporters at a lodge bar in 1994 that “500 coaches” might win with the Cowboys. The coach-owner relationship was ruined. Johnson was quickly out.
Jones absolutely loved the championship success, however the subsequent many years have proven what’s most vital to him about proudly owning the workforce. He loves making the Cowboys his enterprise on and off the sphere. He’s the face and voice of the group. We are able to criticize Jones for complicating his coaches’ efforts to win, however we are able to’t inform him how one can personal his workforce. He has relished the setup.
Whether or not Dallas’ newest playoff defeat shocks him into handing over energy to Belichick is fascinating.

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Now, contemplate the Patriots below the possession of Robert Kraft and his son, Jonathan. They’ve absolutely cherished profitable six Tremendous Bowls with Belichick. The Krafts get credit score for not screwing it up, however the possession expertise is about a lot greater than that. Belichick and Tom Brady have gotten almost all of the credit score for twenty-four years. Now that Belichick is out, early indicators level to extra lively possession.
Selling Jerod Mayo to switch Belichick provides the Krafts the alternative of an influence coach. After many years of showing indebted to Belichick (and Brady), they now have a coach indebted to them. Stories that the Patriots are in no rush to rent a GM and will wait til after the draft amplify the impression.
Fluid scenario with the Patriots entrance workplace: Matt Groh and Eliot Wolf will proceed to run the operation for now. The Patriots will possible interview extra candidates for management positions, however there’s no assure in the mean time anybody will get the GM title.
— Jeff Howe (@jeffphowe) January 13, 2024
“There may be one man who has been doing it for 20 years, and now everybody has received their say, and it has the potential to be Dallas another time,” a veteran coach mentioned. “The proprietor has been held again for 20 years. He’s going to be concerned. His son goes to need to be concerned. It is going to be fascinating in the event that they inform the coach it was Invoice’s fault with Mac Jones and he can play and we gotta get him proper.”
Mayo was with Jones the previous three seasons as a Belichick assistant, so he’ll have his personal analysis. The Patriots maintain the third decide within the draft and will choose a quarterback then.

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No matter occurs, the facility dynamic has shifted so fully in New England that we are able to lastly research the Krafts’ possession with out pondering Belichick was liable for each final soccer element.
“I don’t assume Robert Kraft desires to be Jerry Jones,” an exec mentioned. “I feel Robert Kraft desires to indicate up on Sundays and watch the workforce. Jonathan may need to be a little bit extra concerned. It’s important to give Robert Kraft credit score as a result of he was sensible sufficient to not mess with an excellent factor. Consider Tiger Woods’ golf swing. He had an excellent factor after which he began messing with it. That’s what these house owners are likely to do.”
3. The last word win-win commerce, and McVay’s one pitfall
Three years after the Detroit Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for 2 first-round picks and Jared Goff, we have now a winner: everybody.
If the commerce in some way might have stipulated that Stafford would win a Tremendous Bowl win the Rams, in alternate for the Lions claiming their first playoff victory because the 1991 season, Detroit may need requested for under a pair extra issues.
Claiming that playoff victory at residence, in entrance of a long-starved Lions fanbase, would have been non-negotiable. Requesting that the house playoff victory additionally come towards the Stafford-led Rams? Effectively, which may have appeared a bit extreme on the time, nevertheless it certain appeared proper Sunday.
How electrical was that pic.twitter.com/OmBWpiu2v2
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) January 15, 2024
The Lions’ 24-23 victory showcased Stafford’s unbelievable toughness, resolve and expertise. He’s a throwback to a time when the sport was rougher, the dangers had been larger (and extra steadily ignored) and tapping out wasn’t an possibility.
Was there some type of grandfather clause activated Sunday permitting Stafford to play below the principles as they existed when he entered the league 15 years in the past? As a result of if he wasn’t concussed after two Lions defenders slammed his head to the bottom, it’s some type of miracle. Hand bloodied, ribs broken, shoulder stepped on, head planted within the turf, Stafford accomplished laser after laser, passing for 367 yards and two touchdowns.
On the opposite aspect, Lions coach Dan Campbell allowed Goff to go twice for first downs within the last 3:24 because the Lions ran out the clock. The religion a coach exhibits in his quarterback can imply a lot. We’ve seen it with McDaniel and Tagovailoa in Miami, with Carroll and Geno Smith in Seattle, with Campbell and Goff in Detroit. Religion alone just isn’t sufficient. These groups even have gifted supporting casts. However when gifted gamers know their coaches consider in them, life can change for them.
Past these issues, I used to be once more struck by an elite offensive-minded head coach discarding timeouts as if he might merely buy extra later within the recreation. Sean McVay’s timeout heading into third-and-11 with 13:30 left within the third quarter was the most recent instance. The Rams punted after one other play and would later want that timeout badly.
The desk beneath exhibits the groups and coaches since 2017 which have used the very best proportion of their timeouts with no less than 5:00 remaining within the second half, counting playoffs. Sixteen of the 21 coaches are offensive play callers, a few of them excellent ones. These coaches love calling performs a lot that they sacrifice timeouts when play clocks run low, figuring the time will assist them dial up the right performs. A number of the timeouts absolutely had been justified, however timeouts just like the one McVay referred to as Sunday carry outsized worth in end-of-game eventualities.
’17-23 % Timeouts Known as Above 5:00 4Q
Rank | Staff (Season) | Coach | TO Use % |
---|---|---|---|
1 |
Sean Payton |
27% |
|
2 |
Matt LaFleur |
25% |
|
3 |
Sean Payton |
24% |
|
4 |
Mike McCarthy |
20% |
|
5 |
Sean Payton |
20% |
|
6 |
Sean McDermott |
19% |
|
7 |
Kliff Kingsbury |
19% |
|
8 |
Sean McVay |
19% |
|
9 |
Matt LaFleur |
18% |
|
10 |
Matt Nagy |
18% |
|
11 |
Zac Taylor |
18% |
|
12 |
Jon Gruden |
18% |
|
13 |
Mike Tomlin |
18% |
|
14 |
Sean McVay |
18% |
|
15 |
John Harbaugh |
17% |
|
15 |
Kyle Shanahan |
17% |
|
17 |
Pete Carroll |
17% |
|
18 |
Kliff Kingsbury |
17% |
|
19 |
Zac Taylor |
16% |
|
20 |
Pete Carroll |
16% |
|
20 |
Sean McVay |
16% |
This Rams workforce has completed a lot by embracing younger gamers, placing out most effort every week and scheming with nice ability. This workforce by no means would have even reached the playoffs if McVay weren’t an elite coach. Some tightening up on the game-management entrance, particularly concerning timeout utilization, might make the distinction with a season on the road.
4. Final week, we requested whether or not Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ go offense might immediately come to life within the playoffs. Replace: Sure.
Mahomes averaged a career-low 3.1 go EPA per recreation in the course of the common season. He and the Chiefs quadrupled that towards the Dolphins, with rookie receiver Rashee Rice accounting for a career-high 9.8 of that whole on his 12 targets.
It’s not the primary time an NFL workforce with a fantastic quarterback received its passing recreation going within the playoffs after a comparatively poor common season. The chart beneath compares Mahomes’ soar this season to those Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees pulled off after what had been down common seasons for them.
Miami’s defensive accidents had been complicit Saturday. Nonetheless, this was a Chiefs offense that averaged 4.1 yards per go try with a 71.6 score and minus-12.3 go EPA towards Philadelphia’s cratering protection in Week 11, so we’ll rely this efficiency as encouraging.
One thing comparable occurred with Kansas Metropolis in 2021. Mahomes averaged 5.1 go EPA per recreation for the primary 13 weeks of the season. That spiked to 13.7 per recreation for Weeks 14-18 and held at 13.4 per recreation via the playoffs as Kansas Metropolis received all of it. The workforce nonetheless had Tyreek Hill on its roster then. Rice isn’t any Hill, however he’s rising. May this be a case of the Chiefs lastly focusing in when it issues?
Rice averaged solely 3.6 air yards per catch in the course of the common season. That ranked final amongst 466 broad receivers with no less than 900 yards in a season since no less than 2006, the primary 12 months such information is out there via TruMedia. The minuscule common mirrored a scarcity of explosiveness within the Chiefs’ offense.
Rice is beginning to get downfield simply in time to presumably save Kansas Metropolis within the playoffs. He set a profession excessive in Week 17 towards Cincinnati with a 7.6-yard common depth per reception and backed it up with a 6.9-yard common within the Chiefs’ 26-7 rout of the Dolphins within the wild-card spherical.
Rice caught three passes towards the Dolphins on passes thrown farther than 10 yards previous the road of scrimmage. He made solely 9 such catches in the course of the common season.
The chart beneath splits Rice’s game-by-game receiving yardage into earlier than and after the catch.
Rice’s 130 yards towards the Dolphins had been 3 greater than the profession excessive he set towards Cincinnati in Week 17. The 130 determine included 55 air yards, up from his earlier profession excessive of 38.
The timing couldn’t be higher for the Chiefs.
5. Invoice Belichick and Pete Carroll separated from their groups for causes that might apply to Mike Tomlin as effectively. These long-term relationships might be tough to keep up. Is it enterprise as standard in Pittsburgh?
In December, The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported that the Steelers might be open to buying and selling Tomlin. Extra lately, ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Fox’s Jay Glazer steered Tomlin had job safety however might contemplate taking a break from teaching, much like Sean Payton.

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These are the kinds of experiences that normally recommend currents are shifting beneath the floor.
The scenario bears monitoring after Belichick and Carroll left their groups, leaving Tomlin because the NFL’s longest-tenured present coach. The panorama in Pittsburgh has modified dramatically because the Steelers final received a playoff recreation following the 2016 season. Proprietor Dan Rooney died in 2017. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 season. Normal supervisor Kevin Colbert retired after the 2022 draft. Most of the issues which have made the Steelers the Steelers throughout Tomlin’s tenure have modified.
The issues we’re listening to about Tomlin’s future aren’t issues we had been listening to as a lot previously. Why?
The Belichick and Carroll conditions might be instructive because the Steelers probably make selections concerning their quarterback scenario and training employees.
The longer a head coach spends in a single place, the tougher it’s for him to keep up a robust employees. Ultimately, the coach can discover himself surrounded by a detailed confidant or two, however by then, generally essentially the most upwardly cell assistants have taken promotions elsewhere or just aged out.
Awkward conversations between administration and coach can ensue, resulting in divorce. The veteran coach doesn’t prefer it when “non-football” folks inform him how one can function. Carroll implicated what he referred to as “not-football” folks for his firing from the Seahawks in a dialog with Seattle Sports activities radio Friday. Comparable emotions from Belichick concerning the Krafts permeated protection following his firing.
If the Steelers lose their playoff recreation at Buffalo, they are going to be 3-9 of their previous 12 playoff video games below Tomlin. What conversations may await concerning employees adjustments and the like?
“Yeah, I’ve heard rumblings,” an exec mentioned. “I don’t know what it’s. It’s exhausting to be on the similar place for 10 years. Belichick, should you break up his time with the Patriots, it’s a number of 10-year runs. He mainly reinvented every thing after 10 years, turned an offense-oriented workforce. I don’t know about Carroll or Tomlin, however generally issues grow to be stale and a corporation wants a brand new voice.”
6. Two-minute drill: Your transfer, Jerry
The Cowboys are actually 4-10 within the playoffs this century, together with 2-4 straight up when favored by greater than three factors. The 4-10 report contains 1-2 with Wade Phillips, 1-3 with Mike McCarthy, 2-3 with Jason Garrett and 0-2 with Invoice Parcells. Jones and his tradition are the widespread denominator.
Dropping 48-32 at residence to the Packers as a 7.5-point favourite ought to depart little doubt. The Packers are the alternative of the Cowboys. Their group has no singular proprietor. Their city is all concerning the Packers. McCarthy himself has referred to as the tradition in Inexperienced Bay a model of soccer utopia. He used to inform his coaches there to understand the truth that they’d no stressors — it was as much as them to get the job finished.
The Packers have endured their share of playoff pratfalls, to make certain, and we might blame the soccer tradition to no matter extent having elite quarterbacks and offensive-minded coaches affected the protection or particular groups. However nobody can query whether or not the main target was on the soccer product in Inexperienced Bay.
Jones, in contrast, is a businessman first. He’s a promoter. His gamers and coaches should create their very own tradition inside the broader enterprise tradition to have any shot at retaining their focus the place it belongs. I don’t assume McCarthy or Dak Prescott or CeeDee Lamb or Micah Parsons or Tyron Smith are inherently choke artists. They definitely do bear accountability for what occurs on a play, in a recreation and through a season. However when a majority of these outcomes persist within the greatest video games, 12 months after 12 months, coach after coach, regardless of clearly sturdy expertise, it’s greater than that.
Rumors suggesting Belichick might be in play for the Cowboys make no sense on the floor. Would Belichick immediately be nice along with his workforce’s proprietor pontificating weekly concerning all facets of the workforce, ramping up expectations and influencing personnel selections? Why would a six-time Tremendous Bowl winner reminiscent of Belichick immediately relinquish management of the issues which were most vital to him? It doesn’t make sense to me.
• C.J. Stroud has arrived and we are able to’t discover a extra spectacular rookie season
Dan Marino began solely 9 regular-season video games as a rookie. Whereas spectacular, his 1983 Miami Dolphins suffered a wild-card playoff loss as a heavy residence favourite towards Seattle. The workforce Marino joined was within the Tremendous Bowl a 12 months earlier. Don Shula was the coach.

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So, as nice as Marino was early in his profession, his rookie season doesn’t evaluate to what the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is pulling off.
Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger impressed as rookies, too. However once more, none match as much as Stroud.
High 10 Rookie QB Playoff Passer Scores
I’ll have an interest to see what number of Tier 1 votes Stroud instructions from coaches and executives when it’s time to provide 2024 Quarterback Tiers.
Rookies don’t seem within the survey, so this would be the first analysis for Stroud.
No second-year quarterback has cracked Tier 1 since I started the annual survey in 2014. Justin Herbert debuted solidly in Tier 2 coming into his second season, after tossing 31 landing passes with 10 interceptions whereas going 6-9 as a rookie starter. 4 of the 50 voters positioned him in Tier 1, with 37 extra putting him in Tier 2. Prescott debuted on the prime of Tier 3 following his rookie season.
“Who will make him a 2, simply somebody who didn’t give him an excellent draft grade?” a veteran coach joked of Stroud.
• Browns defenseless: Credit score Stroud, however the Browns turned in probably the most disappointing defensive performances in playoff reminiscence, primarily based on how effectively they carried out within the common season. Their minus-10.4 EPA on protection ranks 403rd out of 526 workforce defensive performances within the playoffs since 2000, per TruMedia. Houston’s potential to take advantage of the Browns’ points at security helped make this recreation a rout.
Houston’s protection, in the meantime, completed with 21.4 EPA, which ranks 18th amongst these 526 playoff performances since 2000. No. 1 on that listing: the 2000 Ravens towards the Giants in Tremendous Bowl 35.
• Picks replace: To this point, so fortunate on my picks towards the unfold from the most recent Soccer GM podcast through The Athletic Soccer Present. I had Kansas Metropolis (-4), the Rams (+3), the Packers (+7) and, regrettably, the Browns (-2). I’ve received Buffalo (-9.5) and Tampa Bay (+3) on Monday.
(High photograph: David Eulitt / Getty Pictures)
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