I’m attempting to reverse engineer the chances for Dallas Cowboys (10-4) on the Miami Dolphins (10-14) Christmas Eve in NFL Week 16. Cowboys-Dolphins is a decide ’em within the Circa Million V soccer betting contest. Miami is a slight favourite throughout the board as of Friday.
The Dolphins get a lift for home-field benefit Sunday. Granted, Arduous Rock Stadium isn’t a tricky place for guests to play. So let’s give the ‘Phins a 1.5-boost as the house workforce. Primarily, the market is saying Dallas is healthier than Miami at their present variations.
CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates with Jalen Tolbert #18 after scoring a landing in the course of the sport in opposition to the Buffalo Payments at Highmark Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Photos)
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Properly, the Dude doesn’t not abide.
Positive, the Dolphins have a sketchy harm report. They’ve two beginning offensive linemen lacking apply this week. Tyreek Hill missed Miami’s 30-0 vs. the New York Jets final week with an ankle harm.
However, Hill hasn’t been strolling with a limp. I believe Hill may’ve performed final week if Miami wanted him. Plus, Cowboys OG Zack Martin and LT Tyron Smith haven’t practiced this week both. One in all Dallas’s largest energy is its offensive line and each of those guys are future Corridor of Famers.
So, I’m not seeing the case for the Cowboys. Let’s have a look at these groups’ greatest. Miami hung 70 on the Denver Broncos in September. Figuring out what we all know now concerning the Rams, Dallas’s greatest sport is a 43-20 residence win vs. LA in Week 8.
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I’ve lots of “yeah, however’s” for the Cowboys’ win over the Rams. Dallas was coming off of a bye. That was a unique Rams workforce than the one which’s at present an NFC Wild Card seed. Rams WR Cooper Kupp was nonetheless getting his toes below him and so they have been lacking RB Kyren Williams.
Extra importantly, the Cowboys are monsters at residence and this sport is in South Seaside. They’re 7-0 straight up (SU) and 6-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) whereas scoring roughly 40 factors per sport (PPG). Dallas is 3-4 SU and ATS and scoring simply 21.7 PPG.
Dallas Cowboys vast receiver Michael Gallup (13) celebrates his first half landing with teammates CeeDee Lamb (88), Zack Martin (70), Tyler Smith (73) and Tony Pollard (20) throughout an NFL soccer sport in opposition to the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Picture/Michael Ainsworth)
Moreover, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 16-2 SU & 13-5 ATS with +6.1 unfold differential as a house favourite in his profession. Miami is 6-1 SU with a +19.4 scoring margin and 5-2 ATS at residence this season.
Florida Man, and fellow OutKick author, Zach Dean winced once I predicted the Dolphins would crush the Cowboys Christmas Eve. Dean is a tortured ‘Phins fanatic who thinks I’ll have jinxed Miami with my confidence.
That mentioned, Dallas is extra cursed than the Dolphins and the Cowboys shrink in huge video games. Since hiring head coach Mike McCarthy, Dallas is 5-11 SU and ATS vs. non-divisional opponents with a profitable report.
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This results in one other level, which is the Cowboys have three embarrassing losses this yr whereas the Dolphins have simply two. They each misplaced on the Buffalo Payments this season. Miami received hammered 48-20 in Week 4 and Dallas misplaced final week 31-10.
Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins reacts in the course of the second half of a sport in opposition to the New York Jets at Arduous Rock Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Megan Briggs/Getty Photos)
Nonetheless, the Payments have been at full energy after they beat the Dolphins. Whereas Buffalo’s protection was lacking two All-Execs (LB Matt Milano and Tre White) for its sport vs. Dallas. The Payments put sufficient on movie for Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel to make use of to choose aside the Cowboys.
Additionally, I’m shopping for inventory in Miami’s protection with CB Jalen Ramsey taking part in. Ramsey made his debut for the Dolphins in Week 8. Since then, their protection leads the NFL in anticipated factors added per play and ranks 2nd in success fee.
Everybody knew Miami’s protection would enhance below 1st-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio as soon as Ramsey was again. That’s coming to fruition. The Dolphins have All-Professional expertise on all three ranges of their protection.
The underside line is Miami has the higher passing assault, teaching employees, and protection. And all we want is for the Dolphins to win at residence. My solely concern right here is I’m TOO assured in Miami and possibly I’m lacking one thing.
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My prediction: Dolphins 34, Cowboys 24
Miami shall be certainly one of my 5 NFL Week 16 Circa Million V soccer betting contest picks. I’m keen to RISK 2 models on DOLPHINS (-125) MONEYLINE at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Take heed to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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